This post is more stream of consciousness than critical analysis, but I have been reading a lot of articles lately. As any startup guy, I have my “water cooler” observations and a few predictions to share.
Social networking with mobile apps, GPS enabled iPhones, and all the buzz and clutter of gadgets and HD video , it can be overwhelming. However, navigating through the press releases and new product leaks produces some interesting trend lines. This is not an attempt at a “magic quadrant”, but if we did draw the lines on an axis of time to market and product maturity, we would have assumptions about how and when these lines would intersect, and what product innovations might result.
1. The old media models are in churn and have been for some time now: education, publishing, television, advertising and music/ media, all the rules are being rewritten. Ad revenues may be way down, but down from a ridiculous high, and are more normalized.
RESULT: COMCAST is looking to buy NBC. Bloomberg bought Business Week! Sony is cozy with Google, looking to dominate the eBook market. Media, Publishing and Music must consolidate and opportunities will present themselves at an accelerated rate. We will see more mergers and acquisitions. Ad revenue biz models (especially for web ventures) will continue to decline in popularity, in the long run they are not viable on their own. Technology companies that improve targeting and campaign efficiencies will still have a market opportunity, since costs must be cut and productivity improved.
2. Well, just about all forms of what could be called “express” content and micro-production are spiking and I love it. It’s all personal, fast, relatively cheap and the quality acceptable. You can short run T-shirts to business cards with personal publishing of magazines, books, blogs, personal printing, video, on-line training, college credit on-line and alternative sources for all your news and content.
RESULT: Micro-personal is in, and products that approach feature sets with this fact in mind will do well. This is B2C of course, but B2B also if you look for it. Many recent startups focus on narrow and personalized approaches to B2B that are configurable and leverage many B2C social media tools, but for business purposes.
3. Software has gone to “managed services” or SaaS, and Cloud computing will further expand the capability and flexibility of software on-demand.
RESULT: This is an interesting trend and so nascent that new products & platforms will adapt to leverage the mobile users that access the “cloud” when, where, and how they want to. The new Android app “Decaf” is just a small example of what is coming.
4. Subscription models are having a resurgence against the “free” models and more micro-payment concepts are coming into play, we are now accustom to a simple iPhone app or music/ video download for a small fee.
RESULT: Netflix is developing this streaming model a la Comcast on-demand delivery instead of their mailer system. Kindle and other eBook readers are also exploring alternative micro-models, and this market is in play with many looking to dominate it over the next few years. Small is hot.
5. Many of the new mobile technology trends leverage social networking combined with GPS, such as Loopt and uLocate.
RESULT: Mobile phones are more like the personal devices we first imagined when the Newton was released. I know someone for example that sent 2700 text messages in 30 days, 400 in one day alone, never mind all the photos and video produced and sent. The users are “twitter enabled” as they text more and more. Facebook and Twitter are on a collision course or is it just me? I see lots of new products coming to market over the next few years. Devices are changing and merging functionality, and hybrid devices will come to market in 2010 as the rumor mills have predicted.
6. Laptop trends too are changing with the leak of iTablet and MS Courier devices and netbooks with Android OS. These all will be out next year, some 3G enabled.
RESULT: These new PDA’s could make for a “killer app” for the mobile platforms we already know. This trend also highlights the move of iPhone from B2C to the Enterprise. The inroads have been made and the iTablet could be the perfect solution for enterprise apps.
7. Miniturization, memory and battery life continue to improve and so do the technology platforms which leverage these improvements.
RESULT: So the convergence of devices that these improvements initially brought can continue if the costs of the new products can be managed in a recessionary market.
8. Monetizing social networks, twitter’s explosive growth, crowdsourcing techniques and private networks, these growing apps are going mobile and folks are now leaving their laptops at home.
RESULT: There is a growing market for more mobile apps. The consumer markets are leading with new product innovations and the enterprise will follow over the next 3 years.
What’s going to happen in 2010, what features go on which platforms, and what are the big ideas floating out there?
If you take a sneak peak at iTablet there is a market for such a mid-size mobile device. Apple’s new 10-inch iTablet/ iPad estimated at $800 with a February launch? These may come head to head with the Android netbooks that are even less pricey? I am certain Apple has fears of cannabilizing the iPhone/ Macbook market, but in fact it could be a marketshare winner. The convergence of mobile features/ apps needs a larger screen for documents, books and multi-media content and there may be a iPad 3G option, or so the rumors say. There is a coming surge of business applications for the iPhone platform and a few startups are focused on the market opportunity. Add Skype on this mobile platform and a long battery life, incorporate photo and HD video ability and an eBook reader and then every student will want one.
Where I think the MS Courier may have gone wrong is that it really is an electronic notebook called an “infinite” journal in the press, and it is missing the app community focus and mobile device capability of the Apple design. Android is still out there and its free, but yet to make its mark. Check out the Android apps though. Android apps are smart and slick.
I think the consumer market opportunity is clear, but few are discussing the business market and it is competitive, with complex procurement, approval gates to navigate, to penetrate, and to win. The iPhone and iTablet could position themselves as a enterprise business solutions provider with a proven platform better suited to enterprise apps and supported by additional device options. Timing is a critical factor here in these observations. The business market must be ready to invest in new solutions, but with a longer term set of productivity and ROI milestones over 3 to 5 years.